According to the BIS, complex credit instruments, a strong appetite for risk, rising levels of household debt and long-term imbalances in the world currency system, all form part of the loose monetarist policy that could result in another Great Depression.
The report points out that between March and May of this year, interbank lending continued to show signs of extreme stress and that this could be set to continue well into the future.
It also raises concerns about the Chinese economy and questions whether China may be repeating mistakes made by Japan, with its so-called bubble economy of the late 1980s.
EDITORS NOTE: Quite a few comments have been made that there is no direct reference to the Great Depression in this month’s BIS report.
While this is strictly true, BIS warned in June 2007 - just before the Credit Crunch really hit - that the global economy was vulnerable to a major economic set-back because of extraordinary exposure to collateralized credit.
BIS directly made references to the 1930’s as an example of a similarly serious credit bubble, and this month’s BIS report describes the conditions of this being lived out.
So, to be pedantic, the warning 1.)“BIS warns of Great Depression” is actually a year old already. What BIS discusses now is the fragility of existing conditions of the fall-out from a massive credit bubble bursting - which has already been made clear across their reports historically can be similarly referenced to the 1930’s, though stated in a typically conservative and non-alarmist language.
Even what optimism BIS had about a weak recovery to the end of May 2008 have been dashed by extreme shorting of financial stocks across the US and UK - Lehman Brothers, HBOS, and property developers such as Barratts, have all taken extreme beatings in June 2008.
So back to the headline - BIS have indeed already warned of repeat of conditions that could be as extreme as the Great Depression, and are now describing that process as we move through it.
In the meantime, unemployment is already on the rise on both sides of the pond, and the analogy some people have concerns about I’m afraid is still salient.
by Gill Montia
It was the question most asked Marianne Du Toit on her 21-month journey from Argentina to New York. Was she alone? Always the answer was, “Non, con dos caballos!”
Du Toit and two equine companions walked, trotted and galloped through both the spectacular beauty and the perils of South, Central and North America in 2002 and 2003.
Her spirit of adventure, courage and unimaginable inner drive brought her to the notion to try the ride Aime Tschiffely successfully completed in 1925. She spoke no Spanish, knew no one in the Americas, hardly knew how to ride and knew next to nothing about horse care, equipment or what lay ahead of her when she trotted off from San Diego, Argentina. She said it was better that way — knowing more might have scared her off.
“Fear,” Du Toit said, “is an emotion that takes up too much packing space.”
The unknown, she acknowledged, frightens some people, but not her. She doesn’t let herself think that way. She just knows things have a way of working out fine in the end.
It wasn’t her first solo adventure. She grew up in South Africa, went to university there, then worked and travelled in Europe for three years. In 1991 Du Toit cycled alone around Europe for three months, covering 2,000 kilometres. A burning desire to see a famous bottlenose dolphin in Ireland took her there where she stayed until her quest for adventure could not be denied.
She said she had always been inspired by the stories of adventurous women who put aside the expectations for a husband, home and family and set off exploring the wilds. She was at a time and place in her when she could do that. Once she read Stiffly there was no going back; that was the journey she had to make.
Du Toit said she thought about it secretly for quite some time before telling her friends and family. She described her mother as an “eternal optimist,” not unlike herself. Her mother always believed in her strong-willed, independent daughter. She fostered in Du Toit the knowledge that whatever she did, she would be proud of her. It seemed to give her the confidence to dream big. Her father simply reminded her that she didn’t know how to ride.
This journey was just something she had to do. She still can’t explain it. With the need to do it came the need to fund it and she wanted to benefit not just herself, but a cause as well. She rallied sponsors and patrons. The adventure became Travels Across the Americas — TATA.
]]>I am going to start Ᾱ almost literally from scratch Ᾱ with one 8’ x 10’ tarp, a sleeping bag, an empty gym bag, $25, and the clothes on my back. Via train, I will be dropped at a random place somewhere in the southeastern United States that is not in my home state of North Carolina. I have 365 days to become free of the realities of homelessness and become a “regular” member of society. After one year, for my project to be considered successful, I have to possess an operable automobile, live in a furnished apartment (alone or with a roommate), have $2500 in cash, and, most importantly, I have to be in a position in which I can continue to improve my circumstances by either going to school or starting my own business. Adam Shepard, www.scratchbeginnings.com
In following through with his plan, Adam Shepard has taken a turn on the road that many of us take in our youth. And, like many of us when we first leave home to find out for ourselves what is out there, whether out on a limb completely or stretching the umbilical cord, for Adam the choice is clear: He has adopted both an attitude and a purpose in life that is at the same time personal as it is beyond the merely personal, a decision to take a calculated risk and find out first hand about other Americans, about how they live, and why.
]]>